Wealthy Countries Urged to Slash Oil and Coal Production to Meet Climate Targets
A critical review of global fossil fuel expansion, production gaps, and climate targets as rich nations face urgent calls to accelerate action.
As the climate crisis intensifies, a new wave of research highlights a concerning trend: the world’s wealthiest nations—despite bold climate pledges—continue leading global expansion of oil and coal production. This article synthesizes findings from prominent climate reports and leading analysts to probe why fossil fuel production is surging, the international implications for climate ambitions, and how current strategies put the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal at risk.
The Alarming Production Gap: Are Climate Goals Slipping Away?
According to the “Production Gap 2025” report, governments collectively plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels by 2030 than is compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. Far from peaking and declining as promised at climate summits, fossil fuel production is forecast to expand well into the coming decades—especially oil and natural gas output, which are slated to increase to 2050, while coal production remains stubbornly high through 2035.
- 500% higher coal production than 1.5°C-consistent pathways by 2030.
- 31% higher oil production than needed for 1.5°C alignment.
- 92% higher gas production than the 1.5°C benchmark.
These aggressive production plans run counter to the Paris Agreement’s spirit and the explicit calls from international bodies for swift and equitable transition away from fossil fuels. They also outpace countries’ own climate mitigation pledges: collectively, planned fossil fuel output exceeds targets by 35% in 2030, and by a staggering 141% in 2050.
Rich Countries: Leading the Stampede, Defining New ‘Petrostates’
While classic petrostates like Saudi Arabia and Russia still rely heavily on oil and gas revenues, a new group of wealthy countries—including the U.S., UK, Canada, Norway, and Australia—are expanding fossil fuel projects at surprising rates, even though they possess both the resources and expertise to drive a global energy transition.
Analysis shows that the world’s richest economies are set to unleash nearly 12 billion tonnes of planet-heating emissions through new oil and gas field licenses issued in 2024, marking the highest level since 2018.
| Country | Planned Change by 2030 | Oil & Gas Status |
|---|---|---|
| UK | Increasing output | New licenses granted |
| USA | Increasing output | Largest oil & gas producer |
| Canada | Increasing output | Major expansion projects |
| Norway | Expanding gas to 2050 | New offshore production |
| Australia | Ramping up coal mining | Expanding exports |
| Saudi Arabia | Maintaining/increasing output | Key OPEC member |
| Russia | Maintaining/increasing output | Major world supplier |
- Only Britain, Australia, and Norway plan modest oil/gas reductions by 2030.
- 11 out of 20 surveyed major producers have increased production plans since 2023.
Coal: The Persistent Challenge in the Clean Energy Transition
Coal remains a stubborn obstacle, especially as electricity consumption surges in major economies. Even rapid growth in solar and wind has not been enough to offset rising demand and sustain declines in coal use globally. While countries like China, the U.S., Germany, and Indonesia aim to cut coal output, others—including India, Russia, Colombia, and Australia—are expanding mining operations.
The 2025 Production Gap report flags that governments are planning even higher levels of coal extraction to 2035 than previously, in direct conflict with the global consensus to phase down coal from COP26 in 2021.
- Coal production is being ramped up in major economies.
- 376 companies worldwide are expanding coal mining, with the biggest efforts in India and China.
- The transition towards renewables is competing with growing overall energy consumption, potentially fueling a rebound effect—where declining demand lowers fossil fuel prices and triggers new consumption surges.
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International Agreements: Ambition vs. Reality
At COP26 in 2021, countries agreed to “phase down” coal—an intentionally weakened commitment from the original “phase out” due to last-minute opposition from China and India. COP28 reinforced the need to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach and called for mitigation targets aligned with that limit, but did not clarify mechanisms or timelines for fossil fuel reductions. The International Court of Justice has further underscored that the 1.5°C temperature cap is the primary aim of the Paris Agreement, mandating global policy action in its service.
Despite these diplomatic milestones, most developed countries’ actions are falling short of their rhetoric—and risk pushing climate goals further out of reach.
Major Producers: Policies, Strategies, and the Uneven Energy Transition
The Production Gap report offers a comprehensive review of the 20 largest fossil fuel producers, together responsible for more than 82% of global output and 74% of consumption of primary energy. Strategic summaries reveal:
- Most major producers show little alignment between their net-zero pledges and production strategies.
- A few—Britain, Australia, Norway—have announced declines in output, with others moving in the opposite direction.
- Global emission targets, if met, would require cutting production and use of fossil fuels to the lowest feasible levels.
The continued failure to curb fossil fuel production means future cuts must be steeper, riskier, and more disruptive—threatening equity and stability across energy markets.
Energy Demand, Electrification, and the Rebound Effect
A major solution pathway involves reducing demand for fossil fuels by scaling renewables and electrifying key sectors (like transport and heating). Electrification improves efficiency, reducing overall primary energy needs—but unless paired with strong policy interventions, lower fossil fuel prices could incentivize new consumption, offsetting some climate gains.
- Global coal demand is expected to stay “broadly flat” in the next two years despite clean energy growth, due to sharp increases in electricity usage.
- Major economies face tough choices balancing rapid decarbonization with socioeconomic impacts.
The Role of Finance: Banks and the Fossil Fuel Industry
New research, including the “Banking on Climate Chaos 2025” report, documents how not just governments but also global finance systems prop up fossil fuel expansion. Hundreds of corporations are actively scaling up coal mining, with the largest growth in India and China—and banks continue to fund these projects, entrenching the production gap.
- More than 376 companies globally are planning or expanding coal production.
- Bank policies and lending frameworks must align with climate pledges to support the energy transition.
What Must Change? Pathways to Close the Production Gap
To keep the Paris climate goals viable, experts argue for a well-managed and equitable energy transition that:
- Puts stricter limits on fossil fuel exploration and extraction.
- Drives aggressive scale-up of renewables and electrification.
- Ensures that declining fossil fuel output is matched with protections for workers and communities reliant on traditional energy sectors.
- Mobilizes finance to support transition, innovate technology, and implement social safety nets.
Table: Needed Reductions vs. Planned Increases
| Fossil Fuel | Reduction Needed by 2030 | Planned Production Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Coal | Peak > decline | 500% above 1.5°C pathway |
| Oil | Sharp cut | 31% above target |
| Gas | Sharp cut | 92% above target |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q: Why are rich countries still increasing oil and coal production despite climate commitments?
A: Economic interests, energy security concerns, and powerful industry lobbies drive expansion even as governments pledge to cut emissions. Some policymakers fear disruptive economic impacts from abrupt transitions.
Q: What is the “production gap” in climate policy?
A: It refers to the stark difference between planned fossil fuel production and what’s required to meet climate targets, especially limiting warming to 1.5°C. The gap indicates supply levels that far exceed climate-aligned demand projections.
Q: Are any countries showing leadership in reducing fossil fuels?
A: Britain, Norway, and Australia have announced plans to reduce some oil and gas production by 2030. However, overall global plans still imply major increases.
Q: How does electrification contribute to emission reductions?
A: Electrification—especially from renewable sources—improves energy efficiency and reduces primary demand for fossil fuels, making emission cuts easier to achieve.
Q: What’s the risk if fossil fuel expansion continues?
A: Without urgent action, global emissions will continue to rise, making it impossible to meet the 1.5°C climate target. This would increase the frequency and severity of climate impacts like heatwaves, floods, and droughts.
Q: How can financial institutions support the energy transition?
A: By redirecting investment away from fossil fuels and towards renewables, infrastructure upgrades, and social programs that support impacted communities, banks can play a pivotal role in closing the production gap.
Q: What happened at recent UN climate conferences regarding fossil fuels?
A: COP26 led to a “phase down” commitment on coal, with COP28 reaffirming the importance of the 1.5°C target but leaving details for national governments to address.
Conclusion: The Critical Challenge Ahead
The gap between wealthy countries’ climate promises and real-world production plans remains alarmingly wide. Without dramatic course corrections, fossil fuel expansion will compromise the world’s ability to meet climate targets, worsen extreme weather events, and entrench dependence on high-emission energy. The next decade is pivotal—a time for governments, industry, and financial institutions to align actions with ambitions and prioritize a genuinely equitable energy transition.
References
- https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-41709977.html
- https://productiongap.org/2025report/
- https://www.carbonbrief.org/daily-brief/wealthy-countries-lead-in-new-oil-and-gas-expansion-threatening-12bn-tonnes-of-emissions/
- https://www.bankingonclimatechaos.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/BOCC_2025_FINAL4.pdf
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