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Real Christmas Tree Shortage: Causes, Impacts, and What to Expect

Explore why real Christmas trees are in short supply, how weather and supply chain issues impact availability, and what families should plan for this holiday season.

By Medha deb

Created on Sep 27, 2025

Explore why real Christmas trees are in short supply, how weather and supply chain issues impact availability, and what families should plan for this holiday season.

Why There’s a Shortage of Real Christmas Trees

As the holiday season approaches, families across North America and Europe are facing the stark reality of a real Christmas tree shortage. Behind the festive sparkle, a complex mix of climate disruptions, supply chain problems, and long-term agricultural trends are reducing the availability of both live and artificial Christmas trees for the 2025 holiday season.

Main Causes of the Shortage

Extreme Weather Events – Severe drought, floods, heatwaves, and fires have decimated crops in major tree-growing regions, such as the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and North Carolina in the United States.
Many growers in Oregon have reported losing up to 90% of their crops in recent seasons, while North Carolina (the second-largest U.S. supplier) has been hit by both drought and floods caused by tropical storms.
Global Supply Chain Disruption – The COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing transportation bottlenecks have hampered the import and export of Christmas trees and decorations worldwide. Artificial tree retailers report significant port congestion and rising shipping costs.
Long-Term Industry Challenges – Many tree farms closed during the 2008 economic crisis, resulting in fewer trees being planted. Now, those years of lower planting are taking their toll as the remaining trees reach harvestable size, with supply unable to meet current demand.
Increasing Demand – Demand for real trees has surged since 2020, as families embraced outdoor holiday traditions during pandemic lockdowns. In Canada, many sellers are selling out faster than ever before, and some U.S. retailers have reported similar trends.

The Weather’s Impact on Christmas Tree Supply

Growing a high-quality Christmas tree is a long-term investment, requiring eight to ten years for most species to reach market size. The climate challenges of the past decade have significantly affected growth and overall farm yields. Here are the most significant weather-related factors:

Drought reduces tree survival rates and slows growth, especially in the western U.S. and northeastern states.
Excessive Moisture in early growing seasons can promote fungal diseases, lowering the quality and branching structure of trees.
Cooler Weather early in the season can stunt growth.
Fires have directly devastated some major tree-producing regions, wiping out both young and mature trees.

How Climate Pressure Is Compounding Supply and Quality Issues

Weather Factor	Immediate Effects	Long-Term Impact
Drought	Low tree survival; reduced size	Fewer trees reach market; higher prices
Floods	Soil erosion; root disturbance	Stunted growth; pest vulnerability
Heatwaves/Fires	Total crop loss in affected regions	Years-long supply gaps
Cooler Early Seasons	Slower initial growth	Less mature yield for the season

Supply Chain Bottlenecks Affecting Artificial Trees

The challenges of finding a live Christmas tree are echoed in the artificial tree market, with clogging at international ports and freight logistics raising costs and lowering inventory:

Retailers are struggling to receive batches of artificial trees, ornaments, and other holiday goods.
Prices of imported trees have surged, with some leading brands hiking prices by 20-25% compared to previous years.
Retail availability is lower, leading to less choice—and higher prices for consumers willing to act early.

Price Hikes: How Much More Will a Christmas Tree Cost?

Tree shoppers should expect to pay significantly more for both real and artificial Christmas trees this year. Contributing factors:

Live Trees – A 2021 U.S. Department of Agriculture report indicated the cost of live trees has nearly doubled since 2015.
Artificial Trees – Some major retailers have increased artificial tree prices by up to 25% to offset shipping costs caused by supply chain turmoil.
Labor and Transport Costs – Rising wages for farm labor and increased fuel prices are being passed down the supply chain.
Reduced Fertilizer Use – Higher input costs mean some tree farms have cut back on fertilization, which affects tree quality and yield.

Global Outlook: Challenges in Canada and Europe

The Christmas tree shortage is not limited to the United States:

In Canada, more than 1,000 Christmas tree farms have disappeared since 2011, while over 20,000 acres have left the trade. Demand continues to outpace supply as retirees leave the industry and fewer young people enter tree farming.
European Tree Imports – Denmark traditionally exports millions of trees to the UK, but Danish farms are experiencing similar climate and quality issues, leading to record-low supplies. Additional red tape and health inspections add to the hassle and cost, with risks posed by the introduction of non-native pests.

Why Can’t We Just Import More Trees?

Importing Christmas trees comes with its own set of barriers:

Quality problems also affect growers in Europe, particularly Denmark, the UK’s main source of imported fir trees.
Complicated EU regulations and health inspections create added costs and delays, sometimes making imported trees even more expensive.
Concerns about introducing invasive pests, such as the eight-toothed spruce bark beetle, threaten local biodiversity and could harm the long-term industry.

Long-Term Solutions: Are We Planting Enough Trees?

Unfortunately, industry experts warn that current planting levels are insufficient not just for this year, but for the future. Key barriers include:

Retirement of older growers without a new generation to replace them.
Difficulty in predicting demand and climate impacts 10 years in advance, given the lengthy time trees spend growing.
Land use pressures and economic uncertainty discourage investments in new trees.

What Shoppers Can Do This Holiday Season

Shop Early – Start looking for your tree (live or artificial) several weeks before the rush. Last-minute shoppers may face the toughest prices and lowest selection.
Expect Higher Prices – Budget for increases of up to 25% for artificial trees, and double for some live tree varieties.
Broaden Your Search – Visit smaller farms and local garden centers. Sometimes quality and prices can vary by region.
Consider Smaller or Alternative Trees – With premium 6–8 foot trees short in supply, smaller sizes or different species may offer better value and availability.
Artificial Tree Care – If buying artificial, choose well-made options and treat them carefully to ensure multiple years of use, reducing the need to replace annually.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is there really a nationwide Christmas tree shortage this year?

A: Yes. Multiple sources confirm fewer live and artificial trees are available due to weather, supply chain issues, and industry pressures, affecting both the U.S. and global markets.

Q: What are the main causes behind the shortage?

A: Extreme weather (drought, floods, fires), global supply chain disruptions, the closure of farms post-2008 recession, and increased demand are the major causes.

Q: How has pricing for trees changed?

A: From 2015 to 2021, live tree prices nearly doubled. Major artificial tree brands have raised prices 20–25% due to higher shipping and import costs.

Q: Are there ways to secure a tree despite the shortage?

A: Yes. Purchase early, consider alternative species or smaller sizes, and look beyond mass retailers to local farms or garden centers. Expect higher prices and plan accordingly.

Q: Can importing trees help address the shortage?

A: Not significantly. European and Canadian farms face the same pressures. Imports are subject to additional costs and pest regulations, which limit supply.

Industry Outlook and Future Trends

The Christmas tree industry is undergoing significant challenges, but also potential changes in tradition and consumer behavior:

Farmers are exploring more resilient tree varieties amid changing climate.
Efforts are underway to recruit and support younger farmers through associations and grants.
Pressure to reinvest in planting now could stabilize supply and prices in future decades, but returns are slow and uncertain.

Key Takeaway: The shortage of real Christmas trees is a multifaceted issue, driven by climate events, supply chain bottlenecks, and changing industry demographics. Families should act early, budget for higher prices, and explore creative solutions to keep holiday traditions alive while supporting sustainable agriculture and local growers.

References

Author

medha deb

Medha Deb is an editor with a master's degree in Applied Linguistics from the University of Hyderabad. She believes that her qualification has helped her develop a deep understanding of language and its application in various contexts.

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